A pre-planning process for sensing change in the ecosystem.

Many organizations explain away change and are then caught out by it.

Control theory says that the potential for failure builds because deviations from the system’s original design assumptions become increasingly rationalized and accepted.

Dekker, Sidney. Drift into Failure: From Hunting Broken Components to Understanding Complex Systems . 

Ecosystems are held in tension by a process of dynamic stability.

Talk about stabilization, de-stabilization…

Ecosystems will always recover and re-stabilize. But will that new stability be favorable?

Conditions consequences…

To make change believable we must tell new stories about what’s POSSIBLE in order to make it PLAUSIBLE.

Explaining the futures cone…

Like any good story, ours needs characters and a plot with a beginning, middle, and end.

How to tell a good story…

The Multi-Level Perspective provides a backdrop against which to tell new stories.

The basic parts of the MLP

Players are the characters.

Landscape…

Regime…

Niche Innovation

Change Types are the basic set of contextual dynamics characters can create, interact with, and be affected by.

Basic types of change.

Transitions result from Change and provide interesting plot points.

Basic types of transitions and corresponding change types.

Anticipatory Awareness is based on theories of innovation.

Geels…

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